ZAAP?

I've been checking out ZAAP off and on for some time.

Here's a headline that catches the attention: Oil Tops $109 a Barrel, ZAP Dealer Shows Only Electric Car at Twin Cities Auto Show

The price of oil is a huge factor in everything that's going on right now. ZAAP is way ahead of most of the competition in actually having a product to sell, though they don't have the scale or quite possibly the money to scale up.

I don't know. I have a "Geekfest" tomorrow at a friend's house, the host of which will surely know all about them.

Leaning towards Applied Materials.

For a mid-long term buy, I'd be tempted to look at AMAT. They've generated a very hot deal, and left in a bit of mystery to keep up interest over the next few months. They've also remained seemingly steady in the meltdown so far.

Nice Day today! But...

This deal reached with the Banks is no long term solution, and isn't anywhere near equivalent to the scale of losses that we're going to see.

Maybe the market will hold up for a day or two, I don't know. Best case scenario is that we get a little positive action until Earnings Season kicks us in the crotch, but I think it more likely that we get a day or two reprieve, then then more sadness.

I'm of the opinion that this whole year is going to be a chance to accumulate Solar, and the daily ups and downs are to be ignored.

House Renewables Bill.

They're trying it again! Go! Go! Go!

Of course, the President will veto it, because he's a Bastard.

In any case, I watched some of the speeches in Congress on this Bill this morning.

Representative Ed Markey demonstrated that he can make a good Spiel on the subject.

Republicans weren't even talking about Energy, they used all of their time to talk about FISA, a completely unrelated subject.

Well, it passed anyway. Let's see what the President has to say about it.

House Votes to Rescind Tax Break for Oil Companies - Funds Renewables

A premise... The Recession

I think we're in a Recession, and I think it's going to be a long and ugly one.

Now, maybe it doesn't make sense to suggest investing in stocks while believing that we're at the beginning of a Recession.

Well, here's a premise.

I believe that we are entering at least one or two very hard years, but I can't help but believe that the best bet is on the likelihood that the international system of trade will survive.

I don't believe that all of those Asians out there are just going to lay down and starve if the US stops buying their goods. In fact, I believe that the entire World has been preparing, at least in part, for possible or partial "decoupling" from the US since around 2000.

Speculation - the Long Term.

There is a vast sum of money tied up in Fossils, Trillions of Dollars, in fact. There are only a small number of Green investment opportunities out there for this money to move to. When that money starts moving, those little companies are going to move up in value much faster than the Fossils will move down.

Compared to Exxon (for example) with 5.4 Billion shares outstanding, Green companies are small in number and small in float. So, what happens if some series of events suggests to investors that Exxon is no longer a safe long term bet, and that Green is the place to be? Well, the Average Daily Volume of Exxon stock is 28 Million shares. At $85 per Share, this amounts to $2.4 Billion per day changing hands every day in this single stock. Even just 1% of the value of these daily transactions would buy a number of shares equal to about 26% of the Average Daily Volume of a company like LDK Solar (for example). So, whereas such a small change would be hardly noticeable to the Stock Price at Exxon, it would significant boon to the Stock Price of LDK.

Now, With 5.4 Billion shares outstanding, for every $1 that the price of Exxon Stock decreases, the combined ownership of that company loses a total of $5.4 Billion dollars in the value of their holdings. Remember that it doesn't require many trades to bring down the price of a stock; it just takes a lack of buyers. If there are no buyers, and somebody is willing to sell at any price, then the value of every single share of stock will decrease until buyers show up to create upward pressure. An institutional investor in a company may be holding tight onto hundreds of thousands or millions of shares of a stock, but they are trapped if the buyers disappear.

The only option for these guys will be to quietly sell some of their own shares while the getting is good. Of course, these guys are sneaky, and they won't be saying anything about what they're doing. The last thing they want is for word to get out that their confidence in fossils is getting shaken, or that they're planning a move to Green Energy. They simply cannot afford to have any competition for those few shares that are available. They have too much money, and they know that everybody is watching what they're doing with it. They'll take it as slow as possible; years if they can get away with it.

Gore speaks before a collective $20 Trillion.

Gore warns on 'subprime carbon' industry

From the article:

"You need to really scrub your investment portfolios, because I guarantee you — as my longtime good redneck friends in Tennessee say, I guarandamntee you — that if you really take a fine-tooth comb and go through your portfolios, many of you are going to find them chock-full of subprime carbon assets," the former vice president said.

Palm Oil Rises to Record as Indonesia Taxes May Tighten Supply


Indonesia's government, seeking to boost domestic cooking oil supply, said yesterday it would impose a 15 percent tax if palm oil exceeds $1,100 a metric ton, compared with 10 percent below that price. The vegetable oil jumped to a record 3,458 ringgit ($1,070) a ton today.

``All the vegetable oils are up -- governments will do something now,'' Ben Santoso, a plantation analyst at DBS Vickers Securities in Singapore, said by phone today.


This is a perfectly natural move for them to make, and it's going to hurt the US and Europe. Americans, in particular, are going to find out what Inflation is all about.

AMAT is planning a massive move into Solar.

Fueling the Solar Energy Boom - Applied Materials


"In 2007, Applied's solar equipment sales amounted to only $165 million, or less than 2% of its $9.7 billion in revenues. But the company says it expects the business to generate up to a quarter of sales by 2010, or about $2.5 billion to $3 billion annually. Its ambitious goal: for Applied equipment to be used in the making of nearly three-quarters of all the solar panels forecast to be produced in 2011."


Note: See comments at the original site to see explanation of the "seven to 10 times" statement.

America is not Isolated from increases in the price of Coal.

Coal Jumps to Record Above $100 a Ton on Output Cuts

Expect Increasing Oil Prices - OPEC

OPEC Plans to Maintain Output, Consider Cuts in March

"The leaders will delay until March deliberations on a supply cut to bolster prices, which have slipped 8 percent from a record $100.09 a barrel on Jan. 3.

``If prices continue to fall as we've seen in Venezuela until now, then we'd probably be prepared to propose a cut at the next OPEC meeting in March,'' Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters in Vienna yesterday."


Awwwww, poor OPEC Oil Producers have suffered an 8% decline in the price of their product from peak.


Thank goodness we have GW to travel over there and ask them nicely (and fruitlessly) to increase supply.

Renewables - 100,000 jobs, Tens of Billions of Dollars in Investment.

Extending tax credits for renewables would create more than 100,000 jobs and attract "tens of billions of dollars in investment" within the next year

Statement by AWEA - American Wind Energy Association

Wind energy industry statement on tax credits in Senate stimulus package

Letter to Editor / Congressperson...

Feel free to copy and paste if you like. It's 199 words, so should be admissible to most newspaper opinion pages. Also feel free to post your own creations in this thread. Add a greeting and signature, and it's a letter to a Congressperson.

--------

On January 30th, the Senate Finance Committee agreed to add an extension of existing Renewable Energy Tax Credits to the Stimulus Package currently under consideration. I strongly support this action, and look forward to seeing this Bill receive the signature of President Bush.

This is a great addition to the Stimulus Package.

By offsetting the cost of Purchase and Installation of Renewables, this Bill will provide a similar kind of short-term investment incentive as other portions of the Package. However, because this is a focused investment in new Energy Sources, it provides mid- and long-term Economic benefits by placing downward pressure on Energy Prices, which, in addition to an increase in money supply, are a primary source of inflation.

Lately, we see the Federal Reserve forced to take Inflationary action in order to support a teetering Economy. Congress and the President must support the Fed’s action by smart Legislation, such as this, to counter these Inflationary forces over the long-term.

Make no mistake; President Bush will not welcome this change to the Package. Supporters of this Bill in Congress, both Republican and Democrat, will have to be strong to pass this. It will be the right thing to do.

Senate Adds Alt-Energy to Stimulus Package!

Dow Jones: Solar, Wind Energy Tax Credits In Senate Stimulus Plan


After an unpleasant day on the Market, this comes as great news! Thanks to Sope1971 of Yahoo for the find!


After GW's disappointing State of the Union, there wasn't much on the horizon to look forward to for the rest of this year as far as US Alt-Energy.

The problem is that having made this statement on Solar Credits (in Committee, at least), they MUST follow through, or we're going to get killed in the markets. They MUST get it through the Senate, and the MUST get Bush to sign it. The stakes are incredibly high, and not just for investors.

However, this is the best opportunity for them to force such a measure through Whitehouse resistance, and if GW chooses to stall the Stimulus Bill, then the pressure will be on Bush to make it happen. Why? Because the arguments support this addition as one of the best ways to stimulate economic growth. Americans can be made to understand this, and there are Republicans up for election this year.

For one thing, giving businesses a 30% tax credit for investment in Alt-Energy creates not only immediate spending and investment, but it focuses that spending on additional Energy Supply, which directly acts counter to inflation. Bush will have a difficult time arguing against this. There are no spending increases, only tax cuts, and also, this is an existing program that is being extended; it is not a new program.


Look for a bounce in Solar tomorrow on speculation of passage. Contact your Congresspeople and let them know of your support for this (particularly Republican Congresspeople).

Davos - Speech by Rajendra Pachauri - IPCC Chief.

Speech by the IPCC Chairman, Mr. Rajendra Pachauri, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, January 23, 2008

I caught this on CSPAN yesterday. It's packed full of information; definately worth a read.

Here's the official website for the IPCC. Oddly enough, it doesn't have a name, just an IP Address.

Time to update the Watchlist: Renesola

Renesola IPO on the Way

First off, let me say, I wish the folks at Renesola well, and wish them luck in getting their products out there and generating power.


However, I think that in the end, Renesola is not in a strong position. The issue is in the scale.


Renesola does not stand to become independent of the Global Polysilicon Market through their own production. This year they expect to produce 200 to 300 metric tons, which is equivalent to about 20-30 MW of wafers. Well, they're planning on 585MW this year, of which 5% will be based on their own Poly production. Next year (and presumedly afterwords), they expect to produce 150 MW worth of Poly to support future wafer production. This may be enough to take some of the pain of high Silicon prices away in the short term, but it doesn't appear to be scaled to provide much benefit after say, 2012, when everybody and their neighbor has spare Silicon production capacity. At that point, the benefits of owning and maintaining a small-scale Silicon production facility decrease significantly, and possibly become a liability (lack of focus, continued requirements to compete on production costs with other market players).


According to the article "In the first nine months of 2007, sales nearly tripled over the prior year to $153 million. Net income rose from $15 million to $25.5 million." Renesola says that they are in competition with LDK. The article goes so far as to say that the competition is "fierce." Well, LDK's profit for the 3rd quarter of 2007 was almost twice that of Renesola over the first nine months of the year, and LDK's IPO was $400M compared to SOL's $127M. Really, the timing of this IPO is unfortunate for Renesola, but time is of the essence, and they clearly needed the money right now, even though it cut deeply into their incoming cash.


As usual, I wouldn't be selling this Solar company short, because there's no telling what kind of price explosions we could see here, but I will say that this IPO does nothing at this point to convince me that LDK isn't still the best bet in the industry.

Thriftville and Squanderville

If you haven't read it before, check out an essay by Warren Buffett on the dangers of the trade deficit.

America's Growing Trade Deficit Is Selling the Nation Out From Under Us. Here's a Way to Fix the Problem — And We Need to Do It Now.

Posted in response...

Question:

"I have always voted Democrat except for Reagan's second term.

I'm really wanting to vote Democrat this time but I am coming to the realization that energy is a national security issue (may be a bit late to the party there but I am there now).

Anyway, can someone tell me what Mr. Obama or Ms. Clinton are going to do to get us off of the "oil standard" as I call it?

Do you think it will work?"


My Response:

I'm less sure about Obama on this, but he does support Energy reform of some sort. I just wonder where it sits in his priorities. In his victory speech after Iowa he used the phrase "Tyranny of Oil." It's only words, though. I don't know well prepared he is with a workable plan, and how dedicated he is to doing battle to make it happen.

Hillary is particularly strong here (as I see it). She's done several major speeches on the subject, and is very knowledgeable. Healthcare is her first priority, I think, but I'm confident that Energy won't wait until she's done with our Healthcare system.

I watched Bill Clinton talk about this subject the other day on CSPAN, and he mentioned a program that he's got going on right now between NY Developers and Banks, so that the Banks will lend the Developers the money to upgrade their properties to Green properties, and the banks would basically not charge more in payments every month than the Developer had saved in Energy Costs.

So, with Hillary, we also have Bill. They could get things done. Bill has been working very hard in the last few years in putting together and working with NGO's and Businesses to accomplish beneficial projects. He's got skillz and connections.

That said, I'm supporting Obama. HAHA! It's a tough choice. I'd like to see fresh blood, and Obama seems very solid. He's thoughtful and inclusive. Bringing Americans back together may very well be more important than having experience-based plans ready to go. There's no reason that President Obama can't tap Hillary, and Bill, or even Gore, for that matter, to help pull together and implement a solid plan.

Here are the official statements from the Obama / Clinton websites:

Obama's Official Energy Position

Clinton's Official Energy Position

Will it work? I'm confident that it can work, because there is little other choice in the matter. There are a growing number of people that are ready to jump in and take whatever efforts are required, and not only that, there is a boatload of money to be made in making it happen. This is the world energy market, and it's a big one. It does depend, however, on a level of stability in the world that is not assured right now.

The pieces are being put into place right now, however, that will lower costs dramatically in many of the "Alt-Energy" techonologies, and there is great potential in the capacity of conservation programs to pay off for American energy consumers. We just need a leader willing to let it happen.

Sanjay Shrestha Interview on CNBC.

The Solar Trade

Sanjay is debating a joker from The American Enterprise Institute. Sanjay puts up a strong defense of FSLR and SPWR's potential to become price competitive with Coal. In particular, he points out that the typical price given for Coal-generated power is at the "point of production" rather than at the "point of consumption."

As for the opponent, he's a senior fellow at the American Enterprise institute. These guys are Neocon and Big Oil all the way.


Kudos to ibcnu2day69 of Yahoo for the find.