Great News from Congress, Markey to take Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee Chairmanship.

Rep Markey possible to take Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee Chairmanship...

This is great news! Boucher is from Virginia, which is a Coal State. He'll have over the Telecommunications and the Internet Subcommittee, while Markey from MA will be very influencial in Climate Change / Energy Policy.

I've seen Markey talk about Energy, and he's a Solar Warrior. This is good.

Looking forward to 2020.

Per Wikipedia, Total World Consumption of Energy in 2005 was somewhere in the area of 15TW. It's suggested that 86.5% of this total is derived from Fossil Fuels, which amounts to a total World rate of Energy Consumption of 13TW. Note, this value includes the energy content of Oil and Liquid Fuels, so is not just the Electricity component.

Using 2005 as a rough basis:

The Total Energy Consumed over the whole Year could be written as 13TW*1Year.

There is a growing consensus in the World that the first International Targets will be in the area of 20% production of Energy from Renewables by 2020. Let's be conservative, and suggest that this target will be missed, at least on a Worldwide scale. There are several major Economies that might not play along, particularly among the heavy coal users.

We'll go with just a 15% target. 15% of 13TW*1Year = 1.95TW*1Year of renewables needed for, say, the year 2020.

Pulling a number out of my butt, let's say that Solar PV will provide just 10% of this amount of Energy by 2020. That makes for a Solar PV contribution of 195GW*1Year in 2020.

Since a Solar Panel doesn't provide constant Energy, we can take some averages, and assume that over an entire year, the panel will have provided a total Energy of about about 20% of its Peak Power Rating, so in order to provide 195GW*1Year, you'd need to install 971GWp of Solar Panels.

Hmm, 971GW of installed Solar Panels by 2020. Sounds crazy.

2007 Total Installation was in the area of 8.7 GWp. That leaves 962GWp to produce over the next 12 years.

What would this look like?

Photon Consulting put out some numbers quite some time ago suggesting what the growth curve in Solar would look like up to 2012. I took 10% off of the top from each of their yearly estimates to reflect the effects of the present slowdown, and came up with the following path to 962GWp by 2020.

The Spreadsheet is here.

For sake of completeness, I also made a more conservative scenario where the present downturn caused the Photon Numbers to be slashed by 30% over the next 3 Years. See the "Scenario 2" tab.

In the end, it makes little difference whether we slow down a bit for the moment, as the long term goal is largely set, and will almost certainly be acted on with great vigor by the Obama Administration.

Is it any wonder that I look with some scorn at the short-sighted calculations regularly drawn up by Yahoo bashers who suggest that today's Solar Manufacturers will wither due to lack of future demand for their products? The market that we're talking about is simply larger by orders of magnitude than most people can visualize, and it follows that so is the opportunity at a time when wholesale replacement of Existing Technology and Energy Sources are the order of the day.

Sit down and watch some Alt-Energy Documentaries.

Kudos to Aholdd of Yahoo for the find, for both of these videos.


Here Comes The Sun
Directed by: Rob van Hattum
48:19





The Gospel of Green
Directed by: Neil Docherty, Gil Shochat
41:52



(This image links to external page with video)



Both of these include conversations with Hermann Scheer, who is apparently one of the primary architects of German Solar Policies. Quite an interesting and persuasive fellow. He has the kind of vision about the future that should definately be spread. On the other hand, he also sees the conflict, between the present Entrenched Interests and Alt-Energy, very clearly. He rightly talks about their eventual destruction in the face of changing technology, and their interest in delaying the onset of the kind of change that people like myself and so many others are interested in bringing about, each in our own way. I happen to believe that the moment that "Big Fossil," and "Big Nuclear" are particularly looking to delay, is that moment in which one of the biggest industry players decides that for their own survival they must no longer suppress the Alt-Energy Industry, but must own it.


The First Video, in particular, is an excellent discussion of the big picture in Solar, and gives several good examples of the Corporate Interests in Solar, with mentions made of of Applied Materials, Solarfun, Schott, Sunpower, BP Solar, and others. Projects and Ideas from across the World the are described by various industry players.

The Second video has a greater focus on Canada and Germany, but includes some great examples of how Germans are making money off of this industry, as well as some of the outrageous hurdles faced by technology developers in Canada.

Election Eve Thoughts - 11/3/08.

Obviously this election is critical in many ways, but the direction of Future Energy Policy is at the top of the list.

In the last few months we've seen Billions of Dollars come out of stock holdings of Exxon and other Big Oil Companies. We've seen literally Trillions of Dollars get pulled out of the markets as a whole, as fear of losses AND uncertainty in US policy direction has weighed on Investors' sense of security. This has been in addition to, and in part, caused by, massive losses and fear of losses in the Derivatives Markets, which will likely continue.

On the other hand, while Trillions of Dollars have been pulled out of the Stock Market, rather alot of it has been converted to various forms of Cash and Bonds. The money doesn't want to stay in these forms, it wants a place to grow. Without direction from the top, though, there has been no safe place to park this money; no safe place, at least, in which long term growth has appeared likely no matter who would take the Presidency.

Across the Globe, Governments and Central Banks have been dumping money on the immediate problems; to try to cover losses; and to try to stop the selling; but what is missing is an overall plan to stabilize housing prices, and get Americans (and Europeans, and Asians) back to productive and sustainable work. Obama has a plan in the US to do this through middle-class tax cuts, infrastructure / energy investment, and other common sense measures such as extension of unemployment insurance. The goal is to help keep as many people as possible in their homes while they find a way to adapt to the changing Economy, as well as to provide an overall stimulus for smart growth. In addition, an Obama Presidency will likely bring some confidence to Investors around the World that the US Markets will be regulated, open, and fair to all investors. The long term Naked Shorting of stocks is an example of a reason for Foreign Investors to be wary of investing in US Securities, or of offering their shares on US Exchanges. We've recently seen the shinking of the Naked Short Threshold List down to a very few companies, and in fact, LDK has fallen off. Now we just need a President who will assure that these regulations are enforced.


Overall market conditions aside, this election will mark a turningpoint in the direction taken in US Energy Policy. Though the immediate need for Fossil Energy will be unchanged no matter who wins, the future under Obama will be clear, and it will be green. The Markets must move to reflect this once the decision is made.

Under McCain, for instance, you'd want to be invested in Fossils and Nuclear. The fact that McCain has paid lip service to Renewables does not counter his history of inaction, nor his active opposition to these technologies. His prioirities as President have been quite clearly demonstrated by his Campaign Activities. A great symbol of the McCain Camp's Antipathy towards renewables is Sarah Palin's recent visit to a US Solar Manufacturer, and her entirely inappropriate and uninformed littany of sales pitches for Coal, Nuclear, and "Drill, Baby, Drill." The term "Solar" was used twice.

Obama represents a sharp departure from this position, and he's stressed over and over that Energy would be his TOP Priority, and at the top of this list will be investment in a "Smart Grid," which will modernize the US Power Grid. The modernized Grid will provide High Efficiency transport of Electricity across the Nation, irrespective of start and end points. This is critical to supporting a Decentralized Power Production Infrastructure, such as we will see with the implementation Green Energy Production. For instance, if T Boone Pickens wants to install a Billion Dollars worth of Wind Turbines, then Obama would let him do it, and would make sure that when Pickens sets up a farm, he'll have access to Electricity Markets all across the US, without the limits imposed by todays outdated grid. Simultaneously, Obama supports moves to get as many cars off of gas as soon as possible. The end result of this will be lower demand for gas and oil, and higher demand for electricity.


Is it any wonder that big money has left the market, and stayed on the sidelines? Who's going to bet Billions of Dollars that a black man would become President of the United States? And then again, who's going to bet their Billions on a 72 year old man backed up by an(other) Incompetent Dominionist? I think we know the answer. Nobody is making either bet, but they've got to be getting edgy.


The big decision is tomorrow, and the markets will respond appropriately to whatever certainty follows. I can't wait!

Al Gore speaking today on Energy...

Here's the Youtube.

What this is.

This is assuming that the Market survives. I'm sorry that I have to preface this way.


This is a rare chance for "the little guy" to buy in BEFORE "the big guy." We KNOW how big the totality of the various alternative Energies are striving for, and it's as big or bigger than the totality of today's Coal and Oil Industries. That's freakin' big.

So, today's big money, that is invested in yesterday's technology, is looking at a situation where they are simply unable to take part in the presently tiny alt-Energy industry with any significant portion of their vast wealth, without creating an incredible bubble.

On the other hand, they are also looking at a situation where that tiny industry is going to replace them, unless they own it, and they simply cannot let that happen.

Therefore, they will have to buy in at some point, bubble or not, and the advantage goes to the little guy, as he can put a huge portion of his total wealth into this industry without moving the dial at all. The little guy can wait till the big guy comes looking for shares in final desperation for ownership of future productive capacity.

Now, this is always the game, right? Everybody is trying to get in before everybody else. The trick is to be right about where the big guy is going, beforehand. Why am I so confident? Because we're talking about Energy.

There is no Economy without Energy. That's a basic physical fact, and not even the most powerful equations of Economists can supersede it. The Economic Powerhouse that gives value to the present set of World Currencies, demands an incredible amount of Energy.

Therefore, since the Rich and Powerful benefit neither from the collapse of the economic system as a whole, nor from the inevitable replacement of the Fossil-based Industries that they currently own, the conclusion of greatest likelihood is that those Rich and Powerful will at some point move to own the future industries. When the move is made, there will be competition between the wealthy, and associated rapidly inflating prices.

Senate Energy "gang" Grows To 20

This is a good compromise, and Obama has already stated that he would support it.

We need this Bill for a host of reasons, from Economic Benefit to National Energy Security Benefits.

It will be interesting to see what McCain says about it as I don't believe he's made any public statements on it.

Credit to Timdo67 of Yahoo for the link!

Biden / Friedman - Meet the Press - Video.

See it Here.


Excellent Interviews.

Biden definately shows his smarts in a way that I hadn't seen before, and Thomas Friedman is a must see if you're looking for the Energy Revolution. He's all over it, and from this interview, he's demonstrating that he's watching the situation carefully. He describes the situation with China well, and is clearly quite inspired.

Windfall Taxes on Big Oil.

Obama supports them, as does Palin.

Just a note on Palin's support of Windfall Taxes on Oil Companies, remember that Alaska is a very Socialist State (believe it or not). Some factoids from Wikipedia point out that Alaska has the 5th largest per capita Gross State Product of all the US States, for which Oil and Gas accounted for 80%. There is an "Alaska Permanent Fund" controlled by the State Government which pays out a dividend to all eligible Alaskans, which amounted to $1963.86 in 2000. So, it's pretty easy to keep Alaskans happy, just try to increase Oil Revenues, and thus boost the yearly Socialist Incomes. See.

So, they are both in support of Redistribution of Wealth from Big Oil.

Ok, let's look at this in a completely different way.

Per Google, Exxon alone reported $38.968 Billion in Cash and Cash Equivalents, as of the end of Q2. Other companies include, Shell at $8.990 Billion, Chevron at $8.180 Billion, and BP at $3.593 Billion. This is what they have in CASH and CASH Equivalents. This money ($60 Billion Total in just the four listed Companies) isn't even tied up in Investments. It's what they've got in the sock drawer ready to move immediately as needed.

So yeah, as a bit of an Exxon Watcher, I can tell you that they've been building up this Warchest for quite some time. What are they going to do with it? Well, IMO they are going to invest it in Alternatives, but not yet. They will wait as long as possible before showing their hand to the public.

So, Obama and many others want to put a Windfall Tax on these big Oil companies. What affect would this have on the Investing Choices made by the Managers of this Big Money?

Well, it's entirely possible for Companies like Exxon to DECREASE their overall Profits, and AVOID a Windfall Tax. They'd do this by INVESTING more of that money into a foundation for Future Growth, like in Alternatives.

Sounds great to me. As it stands, they're just sitting around cashing in on the incredibly high prices that we're currently experiencing, and by delaying future production they are directly putting continued upward pressure on those prices, which is very much sapping the strength of the entire Economy.

The Windfall Profits Tax seems like a good way to put Pressure on these Companies to Invest those Profits. They need to decide sooner, rather than later, if they are going to End their Corporate Lives as Oil Companies, or whether they are going to Continue on as Energy Companies.


EDIT: In support of my claim that Palin Supports Oil Taxation, plus an additional thought on the subject:


http://www.adn.com/front/story/442702.html

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008103325_alaskatax07.html


Her plan was to give every Alaskan $1,200 as energy cost relief, based on Oil Windfall Profits Taxes, and increased Oil Tax Increases that she supported as Governor. Geez, I wish my State had Oil.

Here's another weakness of Palin. Any Economics that she concieves of is based on a Socialist State, with a very very simple Economy. It's 80% based on Oil and Gas, and the Population is very very small. Does she understand the impacts of Presidential Decisions on Large metros, when the largest number of people that she's ever had to deal with is the Population of Alaska, which is only 670 Thousand People?

As Governor of Alaska, when has she had to closely deal with any one of the many Industries that make up the American Economy? There are no Auto Manufacturers, Major High Tech Companies, Huge and Troubled Financials; heck there isn't even very much Agriculture in Alaska.

So, expect no help for McCain on the Economic Front.

Incredible Paper on the Economic Inviability of Nuclear Power.

The Nuclear Illusion

Here's the Author before Congress.

I could fill pages upon pages with the data that struck me very strongly, but I won't bother. Just read the whole thing. :)

Last, by random chance, an Article on Yahoo's front page gives some support to the challenges of Nuclear.

Good News: Green Codes in Cali.

California adopts new 'green' building code

On Activism and the Annoyance of Insurance Salespeople.

I got a call today from our Insurance Company wishing me a happy b'day for later in the month, and wanting to set up a call with one of their guys with me to talk about my financial future.

I had a wicked thought.

I suggested that Sean could give me a call, but I wanted to hear about Insurance info surrounding Solar and Wind Installs. Oh, well, apparently Sean is more of a "Finance and Investing" guy, but Ashley will call me about that. So, I continued that in that case, I'd like Sean to call me prepared to talk about Green Investing.

LOL!

They will all think I'm crazy, but that's OK. They'll learn something about Green before the call, and they'll learn more after. I'll learn too, so that's great!


This one was random, but I've had an Idea for some time to go to my Credit Union and talk to them about programs that they have or would develop for Green Lending. For you folks that want to "Activate," there's an idea for you. Put pressure on your Banks and Financial Services to develop programs to support Individual Purchases of Greentech, etc. There are alot of possibilities for programs that they might not have thought of, but that very well might make them solid and secure profits long-term. Ask them about what programs they've got, and if they've got none, ask them what they're going to do about it. Remember, Home Energy Solutions have real long term value. They're relatively safe loans, so it's very much in your bank's best interest to get a piece of that market.

Pickens Plan Main Page.

The Pickens Plan Main Page.

There are videos, discussion groups, etc. He's obviously trying to build up a heck of a network to support his plan.

Pickens Before Congress - Video.


The most important part of The Pickens Plan for Solar, is that he ties the VALUE of Solar Directly to the value of Natural Gas and Oil for use as Transportation Fuel.

No longer can anyone use the argument that Solar doesn't run their car. Under the Pickens Plan, Solar (and Wind) are used to offset Natural Gas, which can be used to run a Car, which, if used in this way, directly offsets the use of Oil, which would ordinarily have been used to fuel that vehicle.

We're directly tied into Transportation Fuel now.

Here's how I often spend my days... Battling in Livejournal.

The Livejournal Conservatism Community is always alot of fun. I was a bit more agressive this time around, because the particular original poster, Writerspleasure, is a particularly disagreeable individual. He appears to live in Britain, but seems to get maximum joy from convincing Americans that it would be a great idea to tear down their Government for Laissez-faire Capitalism.

Obama - 05/20/08 - Change.

"Change is an energy policy that doesn't rely on buddying up to the saudi royal family, and then begging them for oil*.


Change is an energy policy that puts a price on pollution and makes the oil companies invest their record profits in clean, renewable sources of energy, that will create millions of jobs, and leaves our children a safer planet."


-Obama 05/20/08

New Gore Slideshow.

See the video.

Credit to Mom_Pop401k on the Yahoo boards for the find.

Peak Oil Paper - For future Reference.

http://www.peakoilassociates.com/PeakOilAnalysisOctober6-2007.pdf

House Renewables Bill.

They're trying it again! Go! Go! Go!

Of course, the President will veto it, because he's a Bastard.

In any case, I watched some of the speeches in Congress on this Bill this morning.

Representative Ed Markey demonstrated that he can make a good Spiel on the subject.

Republicans weren't even talking about Energy, they used all of their time to talk about FISA, a completely unrelated subject.

Well, it passed anyway. Let's see what the President has to say about it.

House Votes to Rescind Tax Break for Oil Companies - Funds Renewables

A premise... The Recession

I think we're in a Recession, and I think it's going to be a long and ugly one.

Now, maybe it doesn't make sense to suggest investing in stocks while believing that we're at the beginning of a Recession.

Well, here's a premise.

I believe that we are entering at least one or two very hard years, but I can't help but believe that the best bet is on the likelihood that the international system of trade will survive.

I don't believe that all of those Asians out there are just going to lay down and starve if the US stops buying their goods. In fact, I believe that the entire World has been preparing, at least in part, for possible or partial "decoupling" from the US since around 2000.

Speculation - the Long Term.

There is a vast sum of money tied up in Fossils, Trillions of Dollars, in fact. There are only a small number of Green investment opportunities out there for this money to move to. When that money starts moving, those little companies are going to move up in value much faster than the Fossils will move down.

Compared to Exxon (for example) with 5.4 Billion shares outstanding, Green companies are small in number and small in float. So, what happens if some series of events suggests to investors that Exxon is no longer a safe long term bet, and that Green is the place to be? Well, the Average Daily Volume of Exxon stock is 28 Million shares. At $85 per Share, this amounts to $2.4 Billion per day changing hands every day in this single stock. Even just 1% of the value of these daily transactions would buy a number of shares equal to about 26% of the Average Daily Volume of a company like LDK Solar (for example). So, whereas such a small change would be hardly noticeable to the Stock Price at Exxon, it would significant boon to the Stock Price of LDK.

Now, With 5.4 Billion shares outstanding, for every $1 that the price of Exxon Stock decreases, the combined ownership of that company loses a total of $5.4 Billion dollars in the value of their holdings. Remember that it doesn't require many trades to bring down the price of a stock; it just takes a lack of buyers. If there are no buyers, and somebody is willing to sell at any price, then the value of every single share of stock will decrease until buyers show up to create upward pressure. An institutional investor in a company may be holding tight onto hundreds of thousands or millions of shares of a stock, but they are trapped if the buyers disappear.

The only option for these guys will be to quietly sell some of their own shares while the getting is good. Of course, these guys are sneaky, and they won't be saying anything about what they're doing. The last thing they want is for word to get out that their confidence in fossils is getting shaken, or that they're planning a move to Green Energy. They simply cannot afford to have any competition for those few shares that are available. They have too much money, and they know that everybody is watching what they're doing with it. They'll take it as slow as possible; years if they can get away with it.