Presentation - GT Solar

Here's a newish presentation by GT Solar (dated 6/5/09). Thanks to Parabequ of Yahoo for the find.

Also, here's a nice brief on the process of manufacturing Polysilicon.

It's tough stuff to make. The technology has been kept pretty carefully under wraps for years, but it's breaking out with help from the folk's at GT Solar. Note page 13 of the presentation and the estimated price per Kilogram of $25. If this works out to be true, then it will be a significant step in taking Silicon-based Solar Energy to Grid Parity and below in the mid-term.

Centrotherm - Presentation

Found by Uptothetrees of Yahoo.

Centrotherm.

Great Poly / Wafer Presentation by Wacker.

Link

Here's another one. This one reads like the Chinese gameplan for Solar Domination. It mentions LDK, and many other companies, back from October of 2005.

GT Solar Company Profile (pdf).

From November 19th

There are various factoids about GT, and the World Polysilicon Scene.

Yet another IPO - GCL Silicon Technology

Prospectus

http://www.marketwatch.com

http://www.gcl-silicon.com


Direct competitors with LDK, though not nearly so well scaled up in wafers, though ahead in Poly.

They do business with Solarfun, Trina Solar, and JA Solar.

SOL and their Poly Plant.

SOL does not control their poly plant.

http://www.secinfo.com/d14D5a.t3Xa.14.htm

SOL and a company called Linzhou Zhongsheng Steel Co., Ltd to form a joint venture of which SOL controls 49% and Linzhou Steel controls 51%.

Book preview on a Polysilicon Science book.

Link.

Of particular interest is starting at p.57.

While looking for some Clean Coal Facts...

I ran across this page by World Nuclear Association.

Coal is an extremely important fuel and will remain so. Some 23% of primary energy needs are met by coal and 39% of electricity is generated from coal. About 70% of world steel production depends on coal feedstock. Coal is the world's most abundant and widely distributed fossil fuel source. The International Energy Agency expects a 43% increase in its use from 2000 to 2020.

(Bold Mine)


There's one more reason why Coal isn't the best option. As we're burning coal in an incredible frenzy, and as the price goes up in response, inflationary forces result from both the increased cost of the Energy Produced, but also by the increased cost of steel, which is the basis for so many critical products in the Economy. Increasing prices of Silicon, on the other hand, should have a weaker impact on critical goods, which has pretty much been demonstrated by the increase in silicon prices over the last few years as compared to the relative lack of increase in price of silicon-based computing products.

AMAT is planning a massive move into Solar.

Fueling the Solar Energy Boom - Applied Materials


"In 2007, Applied's solar equipment sales amounted to only $165 million, or less than 2% of its $9.7 billion in revenues. But the company says it expects the business to generate up to a quarter of sales by 2010, or about $2.5 billion to $3 billion annually. Its ambitious goal: for Applied equipment to be used in the making of nearly three-quarters of all the solar panels forecast to be produced in 2011."


Note: See comments at the original site to see explanation of the "seven to 10 times" statement.

Time to update the Watchlist: Renesola

Renesola IPO on the Way

First off, let me say, I wish the folks at Renesola well, and wish them luck in getting their products out there and generating power.


However, I think that in the end, Renesola is not in a strong position. The issue is in the scale.


Renesola does not stand to become independent of the Global Polysilicon Market through their own production. This year they expect to produce 200 to 300 metric tons, which is equivalent to about 20-30 MW of wafers. Well, they're planning on 585MW this year, of which 5% will be based on their own Poly production. Next year (and presumedly afterwords), they expect to produce 150 MW worth of Poly to support future wafer production. This may be enough to take some of the pain of high Silicon prices away in the short term, but it doesn't appear to be scaled to provide much benefit after say, 2012, when everybody and their neighbor has spare Silicon production capacity. At that point, the benefits of owning and maintaining a small-scale Silicon production facility decrease significantly, and possibly become a liability (lack of focus, continued requirements to compete on production costs with other market players).


According to the article "In the first nine months of 2007, sales nearly tripled over the prior year to $153 million. Net income rose from $15 million to $25.5 million." Renesola says that they are in competition with LDK. The article goes so far as to say that the competition is "fierce." Well, LDK's profit for the 3rd quarter of 2007 was almost twice that of Renesola over the first nine months of the year, and LDK's IPO was $400M compared to SOL's $127M. Really, the timing of this IPO is unfortunate for Renesola, but time is of the essence, and they clearly needed the money right now, even though it cut deeply into their incoming cash.


As usual, I wouldn't be selling this Solar company short, because there's no telling what kind of price explosions we could see here, but I will say that this IPO does nothing at this point to convince me that LDK isn't still the best bet in the industry.

From the MEMC Conference Call.

On a potential polysilicon glut:

"if and when that sort of an environment occurs again if prices drop then the demand based on the elasticity of this market would rise pretty dramatically and it takes less time to install or actually consume solar module capacity then it does poly and so what would happen basically is you get solar module guys consumer in the poly, jack up the demand... price might fall, jack up the demand poly gets constrained again and your back in the same situation and maybe its 6 months later maybe it's a year late but I think that might be what happens."

Exactly. This is when Solar takes off like few could possibly imagine. It all hinges on poly supply.

Incredible Solar Nanotech!

Nanoparticle Treatment for Photovoltaic Cells

A day or so ago, someone posted on the Yahoo board about the company Octillion. Well, it appears that this company is likely a fraud. See: Seekingalpha

However, their technology isn't. It's patented out of the University of Illinois.

"Existing solar panels are treated with an ultra thin film of silicon nanoparticles that convert unused UV light into usable visible light, which can then be converted into electrical energy through the established photovoltaic process."

See also: Science Daily



This is incredibly cool, and very well might be an efficient way to upgrade today's technology. They'll have to look carefully at the details, and decide whether it will truly be worth scaling up, but if it is, then watch out!

Quote from CNBC

"Solar business is skyrocketting, Demand is infinite"

- TJ (didn't catch his name / title). He was with a chipmaker.

EDIT: It was TJ Rogers from Cypress Semiconductor.