Photon Academy 5th Solar Silicon Conference

LDK is Gold Sponsor

January 15th, 2008

Tom Friedman interviews Zhengrong Shi of STP, and the Paul Hanrahan of AES.

Excellent Video Interview

Found by c_nguyen9 of Yahoo.

A couple of articles on Tellurium.

arizonageology.blogspot.com

The Tellurium Supernova

The Mega-list of Alternative Energy Companies.

www.renewableenergystocks.com


This list is hard to read, and includes foreign stocks, but it seems to be close to complete.

Cramer on Manipulation - If you haven't seen it.

Video Here

Selected Quotes:

"It's important when you in that hedge fund mode, is not do do anything that's remotely truthful."

"The fiction is developed, by almost anybody who's down like 2% to up 6% here. You can't take any chances, you can't have the market up any more than it is, if you're up 6%, because starting Jan 2 you'll have all your money come out; so what would you do in that situation and you feel like you're desperate?"

No Comment.

Time article: "How the U.S. Caved at Bali"

How the U.S. Caved at Bali


But the real drama was to come. After India reiterated its objection — and was essentially supported by the European Union — the lead American negotiator Paula Dobiansky turned to speak, and announced that the U.S. would not accept India's changes, which sought to lighten the expectations from developing countries. (The UN negotiating process requires total consensus.) Boos rained on the U.S. delegation from NGO observers and even the press gallery, breaking the last remaining appearance of diplomatic placidity.

It's hardly the first time the U.S. has been jeered at a UN event, but what happened next was unique. Nation after developing nation rose to criticize the U.S. in language more often reserved for a political debate than a UN conference. A representative from tiny Papua New Guinea — one of many small island states most immediately threatened by climate change — recalled the old Lee Iacocca line about leading, following or getting out of the way. "If the U.S. will not lead, get out of the way," he said, to gallery cheers. "Please get out of the way."

More importantly, with the exception of a confused statement from Japan, not one of the allies that had generally stood with the U.S. the past two weeks — Australia, Russia, Canada — rose in its defense. The near-total isolation of the U.S. on climate change — which had been building since its rejection of the Kyoto Protocol nearly a decade ago — was now obvious, apparently even to the U.S. Dobiansky turned to speak. "We've listened very closely to many of our colleagues here during these two weeks, but especially to what has been said in this hall today," she said. "We will go forward and join consensus." Boos turned to cheers, and the deal was essentially sealed.

As stated by Joseph Campbell:

Follow your Bliss.

American housing crash and solar...

My wife is in mortgages (still employed, thank goodness). I've had plenty of time to delve into what's going on in housing over the last few years, and saw the current crisis coming a mile away (I didn't know the effects of the outcome, but I sure as heck saw that the prices weren't sustainable).

So, in envisioning the future of energy in America, I've come to the following conclusions.

Adding Solar Panels to existing and new homes adds value to the home, plain and simple. Having a home that generates its own power has benefits ranging from plain financial (payoff over time from metering), to home security and confidence (living in the county, our power has gone down for multi-day periods several times each of the last couple winters). There is also a "fad" effect going on in places where Solar is becoming the thing to do, or a status symbol.

The infrastructure to support solar installation of all types is developing, and great efficiencies will be found in this area as workforces and contractors are trained in the specific specific tools and techniques (these efficiencies are separate from efficiencies gained at, say, LDK, in the production of the panels themselves).

There is money to be made in Solar. As housing prices are collapsing, opportunities will exist for developers to buy common property cheap, and convert it to something special that is in special demand (green).

The financials need to get on board, and they will. Akeena Solar has already teamed up with a bank to provide financing for their solar installation customers.

As it is, I can go to the bank and get a loan on a car, boat, or home. Well, in lending for these things, the bank is counting on getting their money back plus interest. Well, a car, boat, or home, don't necessarily pay themselves off in the end, but energy sources do. There is a measure of safety in investing in Energy, though the system is not yet in place to realize it.

Consider the appraisal of a home. One, the appraiser needs comparisons. At this time, the rarity of solar installations make comparisons difficult or impossible. California may be different from where I live, but where I live, appraisers don't give added value to a property for Solar Panels. You could put a deck on the house and add thousands of dollars in value, but if you put in panels, you gain nothing.

The lending system simply hasn't yet crunched the numbers. They haven't written the rules that will allow underwriters to sign off on a loan that assigns value to Residential Solar Energy Generation while defending the long-term financial interest of the lender. They will do so, because it's in their best interest to provide services to the growing number of potential green-conscious borrowers.

Prices will come down. We see bashers talking about an impending polysilicon glut, but they never mention the other side of the coin, which is that with lower prices, demand increases. In fact, some of the same people that say there will be a glut, also say that prices will never come down to the point at which people would buy the products.

So, anyway... just some thoughts...

Nice!

New technique creates cheap, abundant hydrogen: report

Don't get me wrong...

Obviously of late, I've been preoccupied with the whole drama, but that doesn't mean that I denigrate the American competition.

I've always figured that where China can win with down and dirty silicon tech, America had the capacity to make the sleek high-tech forms like thin film. Right now I particularly like ASTI as an American manufacturer. They're supposed to start selling a product line in November, and that's a significant forward step.

As for on my own home, I'd love to have something nice from Sunpower.

About Me:

I guess you could call me an optimist.

I'm learning Lessons.

I've had a small amount of money in ESLR for about two years. Prior to that the only time I've invested was right at the end of the dotcom boom. My main activity started at the end of March with the addition of a significant chunk of money to my account.

With a degree in physics, it could be said that I've been studying energy pretty thoroughly since about 1996, but my drive towards alternative energy really kicked in soon after 9/11.

Since March I've ranged from about -10% to +60%. Right now I'm at about +10% after taxes.

Watching this LDK drama is incredibly fascinating.

For one thing, I'm learning that to sell a good company because the price is down is the height of foolishness. You can only do that so many times before you will have nothing.

For another thing, I've learned that you can't trust the reporters. They all have their own motives, and know very well their effect on the markets. You gotta do your own work, and get as close to your own truth as possible.

Note that after close today the WSJ put out quite a friendly article on LDK ( Partial Eclipse: LDK Solar
Highlights China Stocks' Risk

This morning I was way down, not just in LDK, but in AKNS and ASTI. I felt great and confident, however. By the end of the day, I was pretty burnt out, but still feeling good, because I'd not gotten afraid and sold out. Yes, I sold FSLR at a gain, and I sold some ASTI at a profit. I was concerned about my available margin. I figure that as long as I'm not forced to sell, then I've got no problems.

We're still just getting started in putting together an industry, but it's a critical industry, and the long term is white hot. My ultimate goal must be to stay in until it's ready to pay me off for my patience.

Imperium Renewables News

HECO picks biodiesel supplier for new plant

Quote from CNBC

"Solar business is skyrocketting, Demand is infinite"

- TJ (didn't catch his name / title). He was with a chipmaker.

EDIT: It was TJ Rogers from Cypress Semiconductor.

Ah shucks. Nuclear plants are expensive.

Peter Lyons, a Nuclear Regulatory COmmittee Commissioner is talking about needing help from Congress regarding the details of a plan to consolidate and develop nuclear power plants. It seems that a combination of the requirement for a 2+ mile surrounding area, and a high per foot cost of land, creates complications to the implementation of the plan.

Makes sense to me, and is one more argument against nuclear power.

Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is making the most sense of the bunch. Democrats are supportive of nuclear power, because there's money in it. In the end, though, the money spent on nuclear power plants is misspent, and without taxpayer support would be nonexistant. Not only that, but nobody is talking abou the waste (except Sanders). It's simply ignored.

Nice target!

"Portugal has targeted that 45% of the country's total power consumption be from renewable energy by 2010."

WOW!

Portugal buys 500 megawatts of wind power from GE through 2009.

Hydrogen from GM algae

Interview of Richard Heinberg

Author, "Peak Everything Waking up to the Century of Declines."

http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2007-0922-2.asx

Misdirection by Exxon.

While wind and solar power are expected to grow rapidly, they will account for about 1% of global energy demand by 2030, while 80% of the energy needs will be met by oil and gas, according to Robert C. Olsen, chairman and production director of Exxon Mobil International Ltd. (XOM) Wind and solar power will grow an average of 10.5% a year through 2030, compared with 1.6% average annual growth for coal, gas and oil combined, Olsen estimated. "It will be the conventional energy sources -- oil, natural gas and coal -- that will need to meet the bulk of the world's energy requirements over the coming decades," he commented at the Offshore Europe energy conference in Aberdeen, Scotland.

http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200709041449DOWJONESDJONLINE000590_FORTUNE5.htm

Standard bullshit here.

Prices of many of these technologies are going down RIGHT NOW. Manufacturing of these technologies is ramping up. Early participants have already passed the 1% mark (Germany), and they did so at a premium. Followers will benefit by the investments of the early adopters.

I'd put my target closer to or above 30% by 3030, which includes an explosion in the energy biotech market which is coming within the next three years.

Exxon will buy in, that's for sure, but the last thing they want to do is telegraph future interest.

Nice product by Applied Materials

Applied Materials Revolutionizes Solar Module Manufacturing with Breakthrough SunFab Thin Film Line

Applied Materials, Inc. today introduced its revolutionary Applied SunFab(TM) Thin Film Line, the world's first and only integrated production line for manufacturing thin film silicon solar modules using 5.7 square meter (m2) glass panels. These ultra-large substrates, sized at 2.2m x 2.6m, are four times bigger than today's largest thin film solar production panels. The Applied SunFab Line defines a new standard for the industry that can be replicated by customers around the globe to rapidly establish solar panel manufacturing capacity and achieve the lowest production cost per watt to drive down the cost of solar electricity.


I'd like to see what the costs work out to, but this seems good on first look.