Wednesday, February 27, 2008

House Renewables Bill.

They're trying it again! Go! Go! Go!

Of course, the President will veto it, because he's a Bastard.

In any case, I watched some of the speeches in Congress on this Bill this morning.

Representative Ed Markey demonstrated that he can make a good Spiel on the subject.

Republicans weren't even talking about Energy, they used all of their time to talk about FISA, a completely unrelated subject.

Well, it passed anyway. Let's see what the President has to say about it.

House Votes to Rescind Tax Break for Oil Companies - Funds Renewables

Sunday, February 24, 2008

A premise... The Recession

I think we're in a Recession, and I think it's going to be a long and ugly one.

Now, maybe it doesn't make sense to suggest investing in stocks while believing that we're at the beginning of a Recession.

Well, here's a premise.

I believe that we are entering at least one or two very hard years, but I can't help but believe that the best bet is on the likelihood that the international system of trade will survive.

I don't believe that all of those Asians out there are just going to lay down and starve if the US stops buying their goods. In fact, I believe that the entire World has been preparing, at least in part, for possible or partial "decoupling" from the US since around 2000.

Speculation - the Long Term.

There is a vast sum of money tied up in Fossils, Trillions of Dollars, in fact. There are only a small number of Green investment opportunities out there for this money to move to. When that money starts moving, those little companies are going to move up in value much faster than the Fossils will move down.

Compared to Exxon (for example) with 5.4 Billion shares outstanding, Green companies are small in number and small in float. So, what happens if some series of events suggests to investors that Exxon is no longer a safe long term bet, and that Green is the place to be? Well, the Average Daily Volume of Exxon stock is 28 Million shares. At $85 per Share, this amounts to $2.4 Billion per day changing hands every day in this single stock. Even just 1% of the value of these daily transactions would buy a number of shares equal to about 26% of the Average Daily Volume of a company like LDK Solar (for example). So, whereas such a small change would be hardly noticeable to the Stock Price at Exxon, it would significant boon to the Stock Price of LDK.

Now, With 5.4 Billion shares outstanding, for every $1 that the price of Exxon Stock decreases, the combined ownership of that company loses a total of $5.4 Billion dollars in the value of their holdings. Remember that it doesn't require many trades to bring down the price of a stock; it just takes a lack of buyers. If there are no buyers, and somebody is willing to sell at any price, then the value of every single share of stock will decrease until buyers show up to create upward pressure. An institutional investor in a company may be holding tight onto hundreds of thousands or millions of shares of a stock, but they are trapped if the buyers disappear.

The only option for these guys will be to quietly sell some of their own shares while the getting is good. Of course, these guys are sneaky, and they won't be saying anything about what they're doing. The last thing they want is for word to get out that their confidence in fossils is getting shaken, or that they're planning a move to Green Energy. They simply cannot afford to have any competition for those few shares that are available. They have too much money, and they know that everybody is watching what they're doing with it. They'll take it as slow as possible; years if they can get away with it.

Friday, February 15, 2008

Gore speaks before a collective $20 Trillion.

Gore warns on 'subprime carbon' industry

From the article:

"You need to really scrub your investment portfolios, because I guarantee you — as my longtime good redneck friends in Tennessee say, I guarandamntee you — that if you really take a fine-tooth comb and go through your portfolios, many of you are going to find them chock-full of subprime carbon assets," the former vice president said.

Monday, February 4, 2008

Palm Oil Rises to Record as Indonesia Taxes May Tighten Supply

Indonesia's government, seeking to boost domestic cooking oil supply, said yesterday it would impose a 15 percent tax if palm oil exceeds $1,100 a metric ton, compared with 10 percent below that price. The vegetable oil jumped to a record 3,458 ringgit ($1,070) a ton today.

``All the vegetable oils are up -- governments will do something now,'' Ben Santoso, a plantation analyst at DBS Vickers Securities in Singapore, said by phone today.

This is a perfectly natural move for them to make, and it's going to hurt the US and Europe. Americans, in particular, are going to find out what Inflation is all about.

AMAT is planning a massive move into Solar.

Fueling the Solar Energy Boom - Applied Materials

"In 2007, Applied's solar equipment sales amounted to only $165 million, or less than 2% of its $9.7 billion in revenues. But the company says it expects the business to generate up to a quarter of sales by 2010, or about $2.5 billion to $3 billion annually. Its ambitious goal: for Applied equipment to be used in the making of nearly three-quarters of all the solar panels forecast to be produced in 2011."

Note: See comments at the original site to see explanation of the "seven to 10 times" statement.

America is not Isolated from increases in the price of Coal.

Coal Jumps to Record Above $100 a Ton on Output Cuts