Al Gore speaking today on Energy...

Here's the Youtube.

New SHO Rules - SEC

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/txt-srch-sec?text=SHO§ion=Entire+Website&sort=rank

A cartoon by my Dad.

What this is.

This is assuming that the Market survives. I'm sorry that I have to preface this way.


This is a rare chance for "the little guy" to buy in BEFORE "the big guy." We KNOW how big the totality of the various alternative Energies are striving for, and it's as big or bigger than the totality of today's Coal and Oil Industries. That's freakin' big.

So, today's big money, that is invested in yesterday's technology, is looking at a situation where they are simply unable to take part in the presently tiny alt-Energy industry with any significant portion of their vast wealth, without creating an incredible bubble.

On the other hand, they are also looking at a situation where that tiny industry is going to replace them, unless they own it, and they simply cannot let that happen.

Therefore, they will have to buy in at some point, bubble or not, and the advantage goes to the little guy, as he can put a huge portion of his total wealth into this industry without moving the dial at all. The little guy can wait till the big guy comes looking for shares in final desperation for ownership of future productive capacity.

Now, this is always the game, right? Everybody is trying to get in before everybody else. The trick is to be right about where the big guy is going, beforehand. Why am I so confident? Because we're talking about Energy.

There is no Economy without Energy. That's a basic physical fact, and not even the most powerful equations of Economists can supersede it. The Economic Powerhouse that gives value to the present set of World Currencies, demands an incredible amount of Energy.

Therefore, since the Rich and Powerful benefit neither from the collapse of the economic system as a whole, nor from the inevitable replacement of the Fossil-based Industries that they currently own, the conclusion of greatest likelihood is that those Rich and Powerful will at some point move to own the future industries. When the move is made, there will be competition between the wealthy, and associated rapidly inflating prices.

Thought for the day - 9/29/08

Today alot of cash was pulled out of stocks. Maybe there will be more selling tomorrow.

At some point some, at least, of that money is going to go back into the market. Where is it going to go? Exxon was down 8.3% today, and other "Big Oil" suffered as much or more.

Ok, so LDK was down 15+%, but that's normal for LDK. What happened to Exxon isn't normal. In LDK's case, 5.11 Million Shares traded on average around $32 per Share. So, $163 Million traded hands on LDK, whereas $4.5 Billion traded on Exxon alone. The same kind of ratios apply to other companies in the Solar and Oil Industries.

The conclusion? Yeah, I don't know. The Markets are dangerous right now, but if reality sets in, it's a pretty safe bet that some of that money from the Oil Behemoths will spill onto World Solar. Big Money is simply UNABLE to make significant investment into this little critical industry without sending prices through the roof. We're seeing how long they can hold off, right now.

WSJ - Bill Gates Goes For Algae, Invests in Biofuel Maker Sapphire Energy

Bill Gates is plunging his hands into pond scum.

"Cascades Investments LLC, Mr. Gates’ personal investment vehicle, is backing Sapphire Energy, a start up working towards a commercial-scale facility to produce oil from algae. And by all indications, he is not trying to save the world from its petroaddiction. He’s trying to make some money."

GE Energy - Threatens to Leave America if no Renewable Support.

“If the U.S.government is not going to be reliable and predictable [on clean-energy policy], we’ll go to Germany and China,”

- John Krenecki, head of GE Energy


'The head of GE Energy, the conglomerate’s unit that makes everything from wind turbines to nuclear reactors, flew down to Washington again today to plead with senators to extend tax credits for renewable energy. The credits, still crucial to making clean energy competitive, are set to expire at the end of the year, despite at least eight tries so far to renew them. That threatens to slam the brakes on two gangbuster years for American wind and solar power.'


http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2008/09/12/industry-to-congress-renew-the-expiring-clean-energy-credits/?mod=googlenews_wsj



That's right, GE is threatening to move their fastest growing Division OUT OF THE UNITED STATES, because of the expiration at the END OF THIS YEAR of the existing tax credits for Renewable Energy.


Congressional Democrats have tried EIGHT TIMES to get the credits extended, but the President and Lockstep Republicans have blocked every attempt. Why have they blocked it? Because they Refuse to PAY FOR IT. One of those attempts to extend the Credits was paid for by Deficit Spending, and guess what? It passed the Senated with 80 Votes. In that case, though, Democrats in the House refused to back it, because they are making the hard choice to be fiscally responsible. In another case, a Bill got to the Senate with 59 votes. McCain was in Washington DC and was available to vote, but he did not show up for work, instead he claimed that the issue needed further study. It's outrageous.

Senate Energy "gang" Grows To 20

This is a good compromise, and Obama has already stated that he would support it.

We need this Bill for a host of reasons, from Economic Benefit to National Energy Security Benefits.

It will be interesting to see what McCain says about it as I don't believe he's made any public statements on it.

Credit to Timdo67 of Yahoo for the link!

Biden / Friedman - Meet the Press - Video.

See it Here.


Excellent Interviews.

Biden definately shows his smarts in a way that I hadn't seen before, and Thomas Friedman is a must see if you're looking for the Energy Revolution. He's all over it, and from this interview, he's demonstrating that he's watching the situation carefully. He describes the situation with China well, and is clearly quite inspired.

Nice Wafering Tech - Sharp

Sharp Announces Technique to Halve Wafer Production Costs for Solar Cells

Excelent article on Wafering Basics - Not Solar Specific.

Link.

Spain raises Solar Limit to 450MW for '09 and '10

Spain Raises Cap on Solar Energy in Revision, Confidencial Says

"Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Spain raised the limit on solar energy production to as much 450 megawatts for next year and 2010 in a revision to proposed rules, El Confidencial reported, citing unidentified people in the industry.

Spain's Industry Ministry will cap output at 400 megawatts to 450 megawatts a year, up from a proposal of 300 megawatts, El Confidencial said."


For some Background of the situation in Europe, see this.


Here's a new IBD article on Solar Pricing Estimates


Credit to Hacker4502 and Diaoko of Yahoo for links.

Somewhat depressing article behind the link.

www.ChrisMartenson.com

"The way I see it, our markets are now largely out of the hands of “investors” and are mainly controlled by large trading funds, which use “black box” computers to trade the markets in a very highly-aggressive and rapid fashion. I have it on pretty good authority that there is a single hedge fund (just one) that constitutes 10% of all shares traded on any given day."

Windfall Taxes on Big Oil.

Obama supports them, as does Palin.

Just a note on Palin's support of Windfall Taxes on Oil Companies, remember that Alaska is a very Socialist State (believe it or not). Some factoids from Wikipedia point out that Alaska has the 5th largest per capita Gross State Product of all the US States, for which Oil and Gas accounted for 80%. There is an "Alaska Permanent Fund" controlled by the State Government which pays out a dividend to all eligible Alaskans, which amounted to $1963.86 in 2000. So, it's pretty easy to keep Alaskans happy, just try to increase Oil Revenues, and thus boost the yearly Socialist Incomes. See.

So, they are both in support of Redistribution of Wealth from Big Oil.

Ok, let's look at this in a completely different way.

Per Google, Exxon alone reported $38.968 Billion in Cash and Cash Equivalents, as of the end of Q2. Other companies include, Shell at $8.990 Billion, Chevron at $8.180 Billion, and BP at $3.593 Billion. This is what they have in CASH and CASH Equivalents. This money ($60 Billion Total in just the four listed Companies) isn't even tied up in Investments. It's what they've got in the sock drawer ready to move immediately as needed.

So yeah, as a bit of an Exxon Watcher, I can tell you that they've been building up this Warchest for quite some time. What are they going to do with it? Well, IMO they are going to invest it in Alternatives, but not yet. They will wait as long as possible before showing their hand to the public.

So, Obama and many others want to put a Windfall Tax on these big Oil companies. What affect would this have on the Investing Choices made by the Managers of this Big Money?

Well, it's entirely possible for Companies like Exxon to DECREASE their overall Profits, and AVOID a Windfall Tax. They'd do this by INVESTING more of that money into a foundation for Future Growth, like in Alternatives.

Sounds great to me. As it stands, they're just sitting around cashing in on the incredibly high prices that we're currently experiencing, and by delaying future production they are directly putting continued upward pressure on those prices, which is very much sapping the strength of the entire Economy.

The Windfall Profits Tax seems like a good way to put Pressure on these Companies to Invest those Profits. They need to decide sooner, rather than later, if they are going to End their Corporate Lives as Oil Companies, or whether they are going to Continue on as Energy Companies.


EDIT: In support of my claim that Palin Supports Oil Taxation, plus an additional thought on the subject:


http://www.adn.com/front/story/442702.html

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008103325_alaskatax07.html


Her plan was to give every Alaskan $1,200 as energy cost relief, based on Oil Windfall Profits Taxes, and increased Oil Tax Increases that she supported as Governor. Geez, I wish my State had Oil.

Here's another weakness of Palin. Any Economics that she concieves of is based on a Socialist State, with a very very simple Economy. It's 80% based on Oil and Gas, and the Population is very very small. Does she understand the impacts of Presidential Decisions on Large metros, when the largest number of people that she's ever had to deal with is the Population of Alaska, which is only 670 Thousand People?

As Governor of Alaska, when has she had to closely deal with any one of the many Industries that make up the American Economy? There are no Auto Manufacturers, Major High Tech Companies, Huge and Troubled Financials; heck there isn't even very much Agriculture in Alaska.

So, expect no help for McCain on the Economic Front.

Sent to my CEO just now - Peak Oil.

Hi D,

I'm going to pass this around to some others, but I thought I'd pass yours along with a short personal note.

We haven't talked in quite some time, but if you remember, I have a particular interest in Energy Issues. I couldn't go into too much detail on all of the aspects without turning this into a book, so I'll keep it short. :)

Linked, you'll find a 18 minute long video, which puts the concept of "Peak Oil" into sharp relief, and I hope that you can find the time to watch it.

As you've probably noted, discussion of Energy Issues have increased in volume over the last year or so, and with very good reason. Of all of the reasons that are typically mentioned, however, Peak Oil is not one of the more common items mentioned, though it is arguably the most critical.

In terms of a specific relationship to and ; in brief, the wellbeing of a Company and Economy has no greater dependence than to the sources of Energy that allow for the functioning of all of its parts. Consider just the incredible feat of staffing a Company with hundreds of Employees who must travel regularly to work from all parts of a City, or County, or Country, or even the World.

Maybe this doesn't seem like so much of a miracle to you; but it can certainly be said that such a possibility has not ever been had in any historical setting prior to about the middle of the last century, and it was Fossil Energy that has made it possible.

So, without further adieu, here is the video: http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil .

FYI, the creator of this video is very credible, and his facts are sound. The remainder of the videos at the site are also excellent primers for understanding of the Economic Challenges that we find ourselves in at the moment, from the basics on money creation, debt, inflation, etc. I go out on a limb and suggest that you surely have a strong basis in Economics, but I'll also suggest that you may have never seen many of these concepts presented in such a way as in these presentations.

Anyway, I hope that you enjoy the video, and I hope you don't mind the intrusion into your day. Also know that if you have any questions on this issue, please don't hesitate to ask.

Yours,
DP

Must See Video - Peak Oil - TheEndofMoney.com

http://www.chrismartenson.com/peak_oil


This is a great video, and there are many other videos on the same site.


Please take a few minutes and watch it.


My thoughts in brief:

So far, the market itself is doing a shitty job of preparing us for the physical realities that we're about to face. Entrenched Energy interests are suppressing potential competitors (Solar, Wind, etc.) in various ways (both in the Private Sector and in Government). The valuations assigned to things by the market, as dependent on the decisions of its participants; is dependent on the level of information had by those participants. Americans are NOT informed on Energy Issues, and particularly they're not informed on just how critical these issues are in comparison to just about every other issue.

I'd like to see the market do the trick here, and in some way's it is getting started, but its opponents have an incredible amount of power to manipulate the Markets. At the very least, I think they're waiting till November before accepting the fact that things are changing, and the time for massive investment has arrived.

Quite a day! 08/20/08

WSJ - Feb '08 - Asia Coal Issues.

China Spurs Coal-Price Surge

This goes well with my still incomplete comparison between Solar and Coal.

Incredible Paper on the Economic Inviability of Nuclear Power.

The Nuclear Illusion

Here's the Author before Congress.

I could fill pages upon pages with the data that struck me very strongly, but I won't bother. Just read the whole thing. :)

Last, by random chance, an Article on Yahoo's front page gives some support to the challenges of Nuclear.

IPO Note: Changing World Technologies

Changing World Technologies IPO


I remember these guys from way back, and at the time I was excited for their technology.

In fact, I've stated that when I die I'd like to be converted into useable Energy by their process (as a joke, of course). :)

We'll have to see what the details look like.

They could be explosive if their technology is efficient, though it's another case of an Energy / Food tradeoff, as if they weren't turning those turkeys into Energy, they carcasses would otherwise become Fertilizer or possibly Livestock Feed.