Thursday, June 3, 2010

Semi-Random thoughts on Energy, Derivatives, and Tesla.

Nuclear vs Solar:

Obama is selling Nuclear. This is one of the few issues with which I really think he's screwing up.

The question is, even with more Government support, will the nuclear industry really get off its ass and start building plants? Nuclear energy is all about politics. Very little of it is real. The financiers won't invest in plants unless they can get the Government to take pretty much ALL of the risk.

So, as far as nuclear is concerned, we might get a bill that still won't produce any new plants. It would be good to see this bill if it's posted out there; I haven't looked.

On the other hand, can Obama really sell a MAJOR wealth redistribution Bill using SOLAR ENERGY as the argument? The US CULTURE doesn't support Solar. They think its for calculators. The Culture does support Nuclear, however. They (we) have been taught how SIMPLE and CHEAP nuclear power can be for generations. The fact that the REALITY doesn't end up supporting this (when the cost of the RISK is included) is not well understood by just about everyone (IMO).

So, does Obama Sell Solar and confuse the people (failing to pass a Bill), or does he sell NUCLEAR and move WITH the cultural assumptions in order to get a bill in that will also support Solar and other Renewables / Efficiency?

I don't know, it's a tough decision for alot of people politically, because it involves taking a SH!T-TON of money from a select group of Industries (Carbon Emitters) and giving it to Others. It's massive Government intervention, and people don't like that (even if it's required for their long-term survival, and even if it MIGHT turn out incredibly well).

Don't know.

A thought: Remember, the Solar Industry is tiny relative to total Global Energy Demand. Some talk like the amount of Global subsidy required to create vast demand for Solar Energy Products is some impossible number. What is a dollar, and how many of them are there in the World? There are a SH!T-TONS of SH!T-TONS of them in World. They're tied up in all manner of Derivatives... like a giant cloud of Dollars up in the sky that is able to exist without really affecting life down here on Earth (maybe a light misty rain every now and then). What happens if a Financial Regulation Bill passes that adds just a tiny percentage to the costs of dealing in most derivatives, and makes some derivatives illegal? Money has to go somewhere else. Is there a downpour?

Inflation? Money that doesn't go into a derivative will go somewhere else, where the costs are more well known. Assets, Businesses, Stocks and Options, maybe cars and other Consumer Goods of Particular Value.

When Oil decides to go up (in Dollars) (It Will), then the Solar Short argument is sunk.

Blah blah blah....

Another Thought: Tesla is coming. Tesla rocks. Tesla is American. Tesla is HYPED! There's BIG MONEY that believes in Tesla, and will buy it.

When Tesla comes out, will a new generation of Big Money be born (Overnight)?

When people see people beat the odds, they want to figure out how they did it. In comes Speculation and creative thinking. If money follows thinking, then the boom can come, and it can cross borders at the speed of LIGHT.