Sunday, July 12, 2009

LDK Solar July Investor Presentation

There's some good stuff in here.

For Example:

* China announced an upfront subsidy of RMB 20/W ($2.94/W)
for BIPV projects greater than 50 kW and certain rooftop solar
systems for 2009
* China introduces RMB 1.09/kWh preferential feed-in tariff for
solar power that supplies to grid
* Jiangsu provincial NDRC announced a solar PV incentive plan,
which targets a 400 MW on-grid installation over the next three
years, with 260 MW for rooftops, 10 MW for BIPV and 130 MW
for ground-mounted systems. The plan also details a feed-in
tariff for each type of system, which may result in very attractive
* China announced it is planning a stimulus package worth RMB
3 trillion to expand its renewable energy use. China targets to
reach an installation capacity of 20 GW of solar power by 2020

This stuff was pretty well known by anybody watching the Yahoo Boards. Lots of articles have been coming through from China. So far it's been ignored, as if it were just rumor, but this puts it a bit past what I'd think could be considered rumor, though.

As for the 20GW goal by 2020, I've also seen reference to talk of an eventual goal of 70GW by 2020. Since the goal is reviewed every 5 years, they'll have the opportunity to raise it if the situation warrants it. In any case, the 20GW goal for 2020 should not be considered as a cap on capacity by that time.

LDK also points out 2-3GW in Framework Agreements in China, as well, but they don't give a timeframe for that total. These are another item that has been coming out in Chinese news stories, and I suspect that we'll actually see much bigger totals than this revealed soon enough.

They've also provided an estimation of their future poly costs:

Target Polysilicon Prices (per kg)
2H 2009 : $60 - $85
1H 2010 : $40 - $65
2H 2010 : $35 - $50
1H 2011 : $32 - $42
2H 2011 : $30 - $35

So, currently they're basically a wash, but soon enough they'll be well below market price.

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