Imperium News and Speculation.

Martin Tobias out at Imperium

In an apparent bid to minimize pickup of the news, late in the afternoon Pacific time on Friday—the last business day before the Christmas holidays—high profile U.S. biodiesel maker Imperium Renewables announced CEO and Chairman Martin Tobias had been "transitioned" out of the company.



WOW! What's going on?

I'd been wondering what's been happening at Imperium, and this doesn't seem to answer the question.

Here's an interview with Tobias

Still no questions answered.



Here comes the speculation:

My imagination had been pointing me in the direction of algae oil supply. It has seemed to me that the key to Imperium would be their connections with algae-based feedstock. I thought that if they had an IPO, then it would be expected that they grow like gangbusters, get those other three refineries up toot-sweet, and get their product out en masse.

The IPO was delayed, and I wondered why.

I came to the conclusion that if they were having trouble scaling up algae-based feedstock, then it would make sense to delay the IPO. There's simply no way for them to really demonstrate growth while dependent on the same conventional feedstocks that were being used by every other biodiesel refiner in the world.

In the linked interview (above) Tobias says the following, "Soybeans only produce about 30 gallons of oil per acre. The most efficient palm oilseed crop on the planet is about 680 gallons per acre. The promise of algae is 7-10,000 gallons per acre over time. But it’s going to take longer than anyone thinks."

As a hopeful future investor in an IMPR IPO, this sounds quite ominous.

Is Imperium's support for algae-oil running into significant, long-term hurdles?

Is there disagreement about whether or not to hold off on going public even in the absense of a demonstrable algae-oil supply?

All I can say is that if they announce an IPO without some demonstration of an independent feedstock source, I'm going to have a hard time supporting the company until such a supply comes along. No, they don't have to demonstrate the technology at full scale, but they have to demonstrate potential.

We'll see.

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